Italian Fund for Science 2025

Project

A scientific initiative for seismic risk assessment and reduction across Italy.

About the project

DEFENS is funded by the Italian Fund for Science of the Ministry of University and Research with approximately €1.35 million. The project develops dynamic, multi-cycle numerical models that integrate geological, palaeoseismological, geochemical and geophysical data to simulate the propagation of coseismic ruptures and the transfer of interseismic stress along the Apennine chain.

The analyses focus on twelve study areas representing the main seismogenic fault systems of the Apennines. By integrating field data, laboratory analyses and advanced numerical modelling, the team identifies zones where future earthquakes might nucleate.

The ultimate goal is to contribute concretely to reducing seismic risk in Italy, through the proactive engagement of citizens and competent institutions in risk management and communication.

Methodologies

A multidisciplinary approach integrating geology, palaeoseismology, geochemistry and remote sensing

Structural geology

Mapping and characterisation of seismogenic fault systems along the Apennine chain

Palaeoseismology

Reconstruction of seismic history through palaeoseismological trenches and coring

Geochemistry

Rare earth element analysis for understanding seismic cycles and tectonic processes

Drones

Remote analysis with high-resolution topographic surveys and LiDAR

Numerical modelling

Dynamic and multi-cycle simulation of coseismic rupture propagation

Public engagement

Community involvement, scientific outreach and seismic risk communication

Project Timeline

Progress phases from data collection to dissemination of results

Q1–Q2

Launch & data collection

First geological survey campaign across the twelve study areas and baseline data acquisition.

Q3–Q4

Palaeoseismological analyses

Trenching and coring on the main seismogenic fault systems of the Apennines.

Q1–Q2

Data integration

Merging geological, geochemical and geophysical datasets into a unified numerical model.

Q3–Q4

First dataset release

Publication of interim dataset on open-access repository and presentation at national and international conferences.

Q1–Q2

Multi-cycle modelling

Development of dynamic models for simulating the propagation of coseismic ruptures.

Q3–Q4

Validation & peer review

Submission of ISI journal articles, workshop with stakeholders, civil protection and citizens.

Q1–Q2

Final synthesis

Final report, complete dataset and international dissemination conference.

Impact & Expected Results

Scientific, environmental and technological contributions at project completion

Academic

Advanced numerical models for coseismic rupture simulation, publications in international indexed journals and a citable open-access dataset.

Technological

Advanced tools for seismic risk assessment aimed at institutions, and production of free Web Apps and Mobile Apps available to the public to improve awareness of territorial seismic vulnerability.